IEA raises its forecast for oil demand growth in 2021

UNITED STATES, WASHINGTON (EDUFINTECH) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised the forecast for growth in oil demand in 2021 by 40 thousand bpd. At the same time, the agency lowered the forecast for demand of 60 thousand b / d for 2022, follows from the monthly report of the IEA.

The IEA slightly revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2021 from last month, thanks to stronger-than-expected demand growth in countries such as China, Kuwait and the United States. Now it is expected that in 2021 the demand for “black gold” will grow by 5.4 million bpd – an average of 96.4 million bpd.

In contrast, the growth forecast for 2022 was revised downward to 3 million b / d. The IEA expects oil demand in 2022 to reach 99.5 million bpd.

After falling for two months in a row, global oil demand in June rose by about 3.2 million bpd to 96.8 million bpd. “This strong recovery has been driven by declines in COVID-19 cases in India, Brazil and Argentina, as well as seasonal increases in mobility in the Northern Hemisphere, made possible by the continued expansion of vaccination campaigns,” the IEA wrote.

In addition, the rise in electricity demand has also led to an increase in oil consumption.

The IEA notes that the expected sharp recovery in global demand for raw materials in June offset the decline in the previous two months – demand growth in the second quarter was 1.2 million b / d compared to the previous quarter and 11.8 million b / d compared to the same period last year.

“For the remainder of the year, robust global economic growth, rising vaccination rates, steady growth in mobility, and eased social distancing measures will collectively support stronger global oil demand, which is expected to rise 4.6 million bpd in the second half of the year. with the levels of the first half of the year – up to 98.7 million bpd. We expect that demand will grow by 990 thousand bpd in July and by 130 thousand bpd in August, so that by the end of summer in the northern hemisphere there will be a shortage of demand will decrease from 4.6 to 2.5 million bpd compared to dock levels, “the report says.

The IEA expects global oil demand in the third quarter to grow 3.3 million bpd over the previous quarter. “This is more than double the seasonal increase in the third quarter of 2019 and almost three times the increase in the third quarter of 2018,” the agency writes.

“However, COVID-19 remains a serious threat to oil demand growth in the short to medium term, especially in non-OECD countries. We forecast global oil demand to rise 1.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. quarter to quarter,” the report says.

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